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Results of the Impact of Factors on the Efficiency of Public Investment Management in Tien Giang


7

2.620844

12.57853

4.574565

82.38918

0.457721

8

2.645486

12.77112

4.494541

82.28209

0.452247

9

2.654666

13.22639

4.590199

81.71731

0.466095

10

2.662275

13.18649

4.638352

81.70310

0.472051

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Results of the Impact of Factors on the Efficiency of Public Investment Management in Tien Giang

Variance Decomposition of Foreign Income Tax:

Perio

d SE D(LNGDRP,1) D(LNDGTGT,1) D(LNDTCN,1) PBT


1

0.341551

0.144501

0.512831

0.432182

98.91049

2

0.460428

1.134297

0.295755

1.677048

96.89290

3

0.552577

1.114062

0.668583

2.201979

96.01538

4

0.623380

1.317598

0.929367

1.849765

95.90327

5

0.680285

1.162338

0.980862

1.973294

95.88351

6

0.727224

1.233844

1.002516

2.045385

95.71826

7

0.766487

1.245602

1.037846

1.945574

95.77098

8

0.799829

1.201483

1.079087

1.977809

95.74162

9

0.828624

1.222388

1.081247

1.997016

95.69935

10

0.853265

1.220757

1.098790

1.960262

95.72019

Cholesky Ordering: D(LNGDRP,1) D(LNDTGT,1) D(LNDTCN,1) LNDTNN


Source: Results from Eview 8.1 software Table 4.35 shows that the capital investment in ICT in the first period explains 91.98% by its own shocks, and 6.93% by economic growth shocks, however, the shocks of capital investment in Transport have no significant impact (only about 4%) and the shocks of changes in capital investment in Agriculture are almost

no impact

Table 4.35 also shows that the capital investment in Agriculture in the first period explained 98.91% by its own shocks, and the contribution to the fluctuation of capital investment in Agriculture was not explained much by capital investment in Transport (only 1%) and capital investment in ICT (nearly 2%).

Table 4.35 also shows that the capital investment in Transport is explained by itself at 99.5% in the first quarter and 90-92% in the next two quarters. It can be seen that most of the changes in the capital investment in Transport are explained by itself, averaging over 87% for the whole period, and the capital investment in ICT is only over 7% for the whole period. The explanation of this change comes from the capital investment in Agriculture (averaging nearly 3%).

Comments on the interactive relationship between FDI capital in Agriculture, Transport, ICT and economic growth in Tien Giang: From the analysis of the model, it shows that FDI capital in Transport has an impact on explaining fluctuations.


of economic growth in Tien Giang (nearly 3.5%), and has a very small contribution in explaining the fluctuations in economic growth of FDI capital in ICT (only 0.5% for the whole cycle). However, this level of explanation is not commensurate with the target set by Tien Giang province on allocating FDI capital to three key sectors: Transport, Agriculture and ICT in the period 1998-2020.

In addition, this result shows that the Tien Giang Provincial People's Committee has allocated the capital plan for the three key sectors in Tien Giang, namely Transport, Agriculture and ICT, in the direction of using the state budget to stimulate investment through public investment of the government as the driving force (Transport, Agriculture and ICT) to develop the economy. This result is consistent with the conclusion of Paul Samuelson (1948) and modern growth theory.


CHAPTER 4 SUMMARY

In chapter 4, the author presents the research results including descriptive statistics and regression results of eight factors affecting the effectiveness of DTC management in Tien Giang through the DTC management process. The results show that there are five factors that have a statistically significant impact on the effectiveness of DTC management: Project implementation (TK); Project operation (VH); Independent evaluation of project appraisal (DL); Project adjustment (DC); Evaluation and audit after project completion (DG). Of which, there are two factors that have a negative impact on the effectiveness of DTC management: Project adjustment (DC) and Evaluation and audit after project completion (DG). With the research sample in this study, the thesis did not find a statistically significant impact on the effectiveness of DTC management, which are the factors Investment orientation, project construction and initial screening (DH); Official project appraisal (TD); Project selection and budgeting (LC). Project Implementation (TK) factor is the factor that has the strongest impact on the effectiveness of public investment management in Tien Giang. Chapter 4 also presents the results of the study on the Granger causality relationship between Tien Giang's economic growth and public investment capital in agriculture, transportation, and IT & TT. Chapter 5 will summarize the results of the study and present solutions to improve the effectiveness of public investment management in Tien Giang province based on the orientation of development and public investment management in Tien Giang.


CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS


5.1 Main research results

From the research analysis in chapter 4, the study achieved the following results:

Firstly, the thesis has answered the question of the first research objective: “What factors in the DTC management process affect the DTC management work in Tien Giang? What is the level of influence of these factors?”

One is, “What factors in the DTC management process affect DTC management in Tien Giang?”

According to the survey data from 238 samples conducted with managers and experts who have worked and are working and managing investment projects in Tien Giang province, there are five factors that have statistical significance and influence the effectiveness of investment management, including: Project implementation (TK); Project operation (VH); Independent evaluation of project appraisal (DL); Project adjustment (DC); Evaluation and audit after project completion (DG). Of which, there are two factors that have negative impacts on the effectiveness of investment management: Project adjustment (DC) and Evaluation and audit after project completion (DG). The research sample in the study did not find a statistically significant influence on the effectiveness of investment management, which are the factors Investment orientation, project construction and initial screening (DH); Official project appraisal (TD); Project selection and budgeting (LC).

Second, “How influential are these factors?”

According to the regression coefficient analysis table, the eight factors in the research model considered are capable of explaining 55% of the effectiveness of project management in Tien Giang province. Of the five factors identified as affecting project management effectiveness, three factors have a positive impact, with the Project Implementation (TK) factor having the strongest impact, the Project Operation (VH) factor having the second strongest impact, and the third is the impact of the Independent Evaluation factor on project appraisal (DL). There are two factors that have a negative impact on the effectiveness of project management in Tien Giang, which are the Project Adjustment (DC) factor and the Evaluation and Audit after project completion (DG) factor.

Through the above research results, the author has found five factors affecting the effectiveness of DTC management in Tien Giang province. The results show that the factors


The research and proposed influence expectations are shown in Table 5.1. Table 5.1 shows that, compared with the author's expectations based on the studies of Petrie, Murray (2010) and Vu Thanh Tu Anh (2012), the results achieved only five factors that coincide with the hypothesis.

Table 5.1 Results of the impact of factors on the effectiveness of public investment management in Tien Giang

Variable

Symbol

Expected

Result

Independent assessment of project appraisal

(DL)

+

+

Project implementation

(TK)

+


Project Adjustment

(DC)

+

-

Project Operation

(VH)

+

+

Post-Project Completion Review and Audit

(DG)

+

-

Investment orientation, project construction, and initial screening

(DH)

+

Not statistically significant

Formal project appraisal

(TD)

+

Project selection and budgeting

(LC)

+

Source: From the author's research results. The qualitative survey results also show that the management of public investment projects in Tien Giang province is largely in accordance with the correct procedures; however, although the management process seems strict in form, in reality, the management of public investment projects still has many shortcomings. Therefore, based on the development orientation and management orientation of public investment projects in Tien Giang province, as well as from the survey results and regression of factors affecting public investment projects obtained in chapter 4, this is the basis for the author to make some recommendations to improve

Effective management of public investment in Tien Giang province.

Second, the thesis has answered the second research question: "What is the causal relationship between FDI capital in the Agriculture, Transport, and Information Technology sectors and economic growth in Tien Giang?"

On the interactive relationship between FDI capital in Agriculture, Industry, Information Technology and Communications with economic growth in Tien Giang:

- Tien Giang's economic growth has a two-way causal relationship with FDI in Agriculture and FDI in the Transport and Information Technology sectors. The impact of FDI in Agriculture shows a positive impact on economic growth in the first year, starting from the middle of the third quarter and the fourth quarter. However, this impact only increases starting at the end of the first year and the response of economic growth to FDI in the Agriculture sector tends to decrease in the second year.


- The response of economic growth is positive to FDI shocks in the ICT sector in the second quarter, and this impact increases and lasts until it peaks in the third year with an increase of about 0.5%, and then this response does not fade away but still affects the following years. However, the impact of FDI in the ICT sector on Tien Giang's economic growth still exists. The research results have not shown that the change in economic growth in the model is not statistically significantly affected by FDI in the ICT sector.

- The research results also show that the change in investment capital in the Transport sector is one-way and statistically significant affected by investment capital in the ICT sector.

- With the data set in this study, the research results do not show a two-way causal effect of FDI in the Agriculture sector on FDI in the Transport and ICT sectors.

Thus, it can be seen that in Tien Giang, although there is a contribution of FDI capital in Agriculture and Transport to the level of changing economic growth, it can be said that the contribution to explaining this fluctuation is insignificant.

Although in the period from 1998-2018, Tien Giang has changed its development strategy as well as its allocation of public investment capital in Agriculture, Transport, and ICT. However, combined with the analysis of the ICOR index of the Transport, ICT and the division of variance and the relative impacts between these variables, it shows that this is not very effective. Based on these results, combined with the research results in model 1 on factors affecting the effectiveness of public investment management [there are three factors with positive impacts, with the Project Implementation (TK) factor having the most impact, the Project Operation (VH) factor having the second impact, and the third is the impact of the Independent Evaluation factor on project appraisal (DL). There are two factors that have negative impacts on the effectiveness of project management in Tien Giang, namely Project Adjustment (DC) and Post-project Evaluation and Audit (DG) as the basis for the author to propose recommendations to improve the effectiveness of project management in Tien Giang.


5.2 Orientation and policies for public investment management in Tien Giang for the period 2020-2030

5.2.1. Public investment orientation in Tien Giang province

The orientation of public investment in Tien Giang is based on the development space orientation of the province. According to the Department of Planning and Investment of Tien Giang province (2019), the Provincial People's Committee has directed the Department of Planning and Investment, the Department of Finance and related units to allocate capital to investors to implement public investment projects. At the same time, continuously direct and urge the implementation and disbursement of the public investment capital plan in 2019 through on-site inspection teams and reports at monthly meetings of the Provincial People's Committee members. Specifically, the disbursement rate by the end of November 2019 reached over 90% of the plan. In 2020, public investment capital in the province is expected to increase by 37.4% (more than VND 5,715 million compared to 2019), with this figure, this is the year with the highest public investment capital in the province. It is expected that 158 ​​new projects will start construction in 2020, including: 54 investment projects and 104 economic-technical reports. The orientation of the DTC in Tien Giang is based on the spatial development orientation of the province with a vision for 2020-2030 as follows.

First, Economic Development Zone.

Developing the central urban economic zone: including My Tho City, Cho Gao District and Chau Thanh District. In which, My Tho City is both the central urban area of ​​Tien Giang Province and a satellite city, the development pole in the Southwest of Ho Chi Minh City, the development pole in the North of the Mekong Delta. Focus on developing urban areas, population, education and training, healthcare in the Southwest sub-region of Ho Chi Minh City, the North of the Mekong Delta and the province, developing the agricultural, forestry and fishery processing industry, trade and services, eco-tourism on the Tien River islands, national cultural and historical tourism; developing high-tech agriculture, growing ornamental plants and safe vegetables.

Developing the Eastern urban economic zone: including Go Cong town, Go Cong Dong district, Go Cong Tay district and Tan Phu Dong district, is the second dynamic development zone of Tien Giang province, in which Go Cong town is the core urban area oriented towards developing marine economy, developing mechanical service industry, logistics port, fishing and aquaculture, marine eco-tourism, mangrove forest conservation, vision 2030 will form a marine economic zone.


Developing the Western urban economic zone: including Cai Lay town, Cai Lay district, Cai Be district and Tan Phuoc district; in which Cai Lay town is the core urban area. Focus on developing agricultural processing industry such as rice and fruit; high-tech agriculture; developing trade services, agricultural product hubs; ecological tourism of fruit gardens and Dong Thap Muoi region.

Second, Urban development orientation.

Regional central urban areas: focus on attracting investment to develop three central urban areas of three regions of the province: My Tho city, type 1 urban area; Go Cong town and Cai Lay town, type 1 urban areas.

3. District center: renovate, upgrade, and attract investment to develop two type 4 urban areas (Cai Be, Tan Hiep); six type 5 urban areas (Cho Gao, My Phuoc, Tan Hoa, Vinh Binh, newly establish Tan Phu Dong and Binh Phu towns); research planning and investment to develop Long Dinh town to become the new district center of Chau Thanh district. Regional center town: includes one type 4 urban area (Vam Lang town, serving the development of service industry associated with the marine economy and Go Cong industrial zone), establish five type 5 urban areas (Vinh Kim, Long Dinh, Ben Tranh, An Huu, Thien Ho towns). Towns: develop 30 to 40 town areas with a population of about 2,000 to 4,000 people/town area associated with the process of building new rural areas.

Third, Orientation of development and distribution of rural population.

The rural population distribution in Tien Giang province is based on the development orientation and distribution of rural population. The rural population distribution in Tien Giang province is mainly in the form of residential clusters in the central towns of districts and communes; residential lines distributed along traffic routes, large rivers and canals; and scattered distribution forms in specialized rice growing areas, interspersed with fruit gardens, linking these residential forms with the community tourism model.

The rural population distribution model of Tien Giang is a delta region based on hamlets and communes. The commune construction planning follows the new rural model, to ensure convenience in social infrastructure, technical infrastructure and form large specialized areas, mechanize agricultural production to suit the process of industrialization, modernization, and economic restructuring in rural areas.

Fourth, housing development orientation.

Tien Giang continues to implement important housing programs and projects.

The 2020-2030 phase has been approved by the Government. The investment program for construction


social housing construction; Investment program to build housing for university and college students; Housing development program for workers in industrial parks; program to build residential clusters and lines in areas frequently flooded in the Mekong Delta; Program to support poor households in rural areas to renovate housing; Program to renovate and upgrade old housing areas to beautify urban areas according to planning...

Fifth, develop marine and coastal economy.

Continue to affirm that the sea and coastal areas are a strategic area with great economic potential, an extremely important national defense position for socio-economic development and ensuring national defense and security of Tien Giang province, developing fisheries and seaports is a key economic sector creating a strong driving force for the structural shift and economic development of the province. Based on the potential and advantages of the sea and coastal areas, it will be built into a dynamic economic development zone, attracting domestic and foreign investment sources in the province, preparing the premise and conditions for the formation of the Go Cong coastal economic zone. Developing marine and coastal economic sectors, developing tourism, and developing seafood to ensure high efficiency and sustainability, associated with protecting national defense and security, protecting the ecological environment and regenerating aquatic resources.

5.3 Recommendations

5.3.1. Some recommendations to improve the efficiency of public investment management in Tien Giang based on the public investment management process

5.3.1.1. On the management of public investment project implementation

In terms of form, it seems that the network of hundreds of documents, from strategies to plans, planning, orientations, programs from the central level to the district level and ministries and branches covers every corner of the activities of the DTC and ensures that the DTC is guided by clear and consistent directions. However, in reality, this system of documents encounters some fundamental shortcomings.

In addition, the research results show that this factor has the highest and most positive impact among the factors affecting the effectiveness of urban management in Tien Giang. Therefore, in the coming time, to improve the effectiveness of urban management, Tien Giang province needs to increase the effectiveness of project implementation, specifically, it is necessary to limit the situation of projects being prolonged and increasing costs by:

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